Defense Investment Banking - Abstract of Papers on India-Israel Relations

India-Israel Defense Relationship: Quantitative & Qualitative Analysis of Defense Companies of India & Israel

Abstract— when it comes to India-Israel relations, the most talked about aspect has been the defense relations between the two nations. Here we have tried to study all the aspects of defense relationship and compared defense industries of India, Israel & US. After the establishment of formal relationship between India & Israel, the defense relationship has grown manifold. Israel is now the second largest source of weaponry for India. Thus, analyzing this relationship was important. We have come out with the model which can predict how the future relationship can be for defense trade between the two nations. Defense trade and investment between the two nations is bound to rise exponentially. 

  We have used three modeling aspects - Multiple Regression on EV/EBTIDA multiple, Projections of share price by Monte Carlo Simulation and Rank Correlation (current year). We find that contribution in multiple (based on MLR) is more from debt and intercept in the companies of Israel and USA. Indian companies are not very good in using debt as tool to amplify shareholder returns. We found that optimizations and controlling sales volatility for Israeli companies and right use of debt for Indian companies can increase the returns. Also we found that margin and multiple have remained stable and is not causing change to the share price as sales volatility.

Keywords— India, Israel, US, defense, relations, sector. 

Presented the Paper on India-Israel Defense Relations at Rajiv Gandhi National University of Law, Patiala.

Conference Name: International Conference on Indo-US Relations & South Asia.

Conference Date: 29th Oct. 2014 (Wednesday).

Conference Link: http://www.indous.asia/

Quant Techniques & Regimes for Increase in Trade & Business Between India & Israel

Abstract

In this paper we have performed Monte Carlo Simulation, Multiple Linear Regression and Regime analysis for Projecting Trade & Business between India and Israel. The trade relations between India and Israel are extensively analyzed and predictions are being made using various mathematical models for their expansion. The effects of political regimes on economic relations are also evaluated. We have used regression and AR 1 models to predict imports (indexed over a broad range of products). The factors like High Tech machines & chemicals, which constitute most of the trade, are assumed as market parameters and are being utilized in forming multiple regression model. Two parameters that remain important in predicting import are exchange rate (currency) and market (Sensex) trends. In this work we also ran multiple regressions on Imports based on various factors and developed a multiple regression model. We have projected Import for the next 50 months and projected bilateral trade based on the import and changing the trade/import parameter. The deficiencies of trade between India and Israel are analyzed and also scenarios and segment drivers for the trade are also explored. We also studied the impact of terrorism and war on the trade and relations between India and Israel. In this regard, market movement in major terrorist attacks is compared and a stress testing methodology which could help us predict how markets would behave in case of another terror attack is proposed. We also pointed out areas where the cooperation could grow and use of Private Equity, joint ventures, and the financial aspects of Return on Equity for the same.